2013 Real Estate Review (Part 3)

In the first two parts of our review of Edmonton's real estate market for 2013 we have looked at pretty much every area of the City save two.  Today we are going to finish off by taking a look at the Downtown area and the Central region.

NOTE:  This is a multi part series that will span the next week or so.  We will start with the districts in Edmonton and then move out to look at some of the surrounding communities. 

The Central districts run east starting from 142 street to the city boundaries and follow the north bank of the River up to the Yellowhead.  It is, for the most part a very mature region that most people would balk at due to perceived "socio-economic concerns", but also includes some of Edmonton's most cherished heritage neighbourhoods (Ada Boulevard).  While it is true that there are some areas that are facing challenges with certain classes of people, the area is one that offers many families there first chances at home ownership and it is becoming a popular infill development option for some builders due to lot sizes and affordability.  2013's number are as follows:

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

• # TRANSACTIONS
• 2012 - 671
• 2013 - 661          DOWN 1.5%

• AVERAGE SALE PRICE
• 2012 - $253,195
• 2013 - $269,864  UP 6.6%

• DAYS ON MARKET
• 2012 - 52
• 2013 - 47

CONDOMINIUMS

• # TRANSACTIONS
• 2012 - 251
• 2013 - 246          DOWN 2.0%

• AVERAGE SALE PRICE
• 2012 - $154,607
• 2013 - $152,720  DOWN 1.2%

• DAYS ON MARKET
• 2012 - 57
• 2013 - 57

Thoughts: 2013 marked a bit of a setback in transaction for the area after seeing some very positive numbers over the past few years.  I think one of the issues is the transitory nature of the area.  As really the second choice of many buyers, the continued affordability in other areas of the city has a bit of an impact as people find options elsewhere where in previous years where the market was a bit more "heady".  The condo market is a touch more sensitive to this than the residential portion as evidenced by the drop in both sales and prices.  2014 will see a bit of a recovery to 2012 levels, but not much "growth" beyond that.   Look for single family sales to climb back to 675 units (+2%) and condo sales to push back to 250 units (+1.6%).  Prices will also climb with single family averages UP 1.9% to $275,000 and condos making back the 2013 losses to rise back to $155,000.  The time on the market will continue to be 47 days for homes and 57 days for condos.

The Downtown region is the most geographically compact of all the Edmonton areas.  Comprising of that region that lies on either side of Jasper Avenue bounded by the River on the South and roughly 104 Avenue on the North, it's east/west boundaries are also pretty much bounded by Jasper Avenue - where it becomes 124 Street in the west and where it becomes 82 Street in the east.  While most regions we discuss are dominated by single family homes, the downtown is the one place in Edmonton that has built UP rather than OUT - so the condo market is the main housing driver.  That being established here are the key 2013 numbers:

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

• # TRANSACTIONS
• 2012 - 59
• 2013 - 74          DOWN 25%

• AVERAGE SALE PRICE
• 2012 - $375,376
• 2013 - $423,121  UP 12.7%

• DAYS ON MARKET
• 2012 - 70
• 2013 - 69

CONDOMINIUMS

• # TRANSACTIONS
• 2012 - 653
• 2013 - 709          UP 8.6%

• AVERAGE SALE PRICE
• 2012 - $270,661
• 2013 - $291,486  UP 7.7%

• DAYS ON MARKET
• 2012 - 55
• 2013 - 58

Thoughts: The single daily market in this area is mercurial.  Because there are so few of them and we are really starting to see a change in the makeup of them.  Many of the older homes are being bought up to make way for either new homes, or collected in bundles to give way for new projects.  Thus prices have begun to rise again to to a newer product offering or the desirability of older "lots".  The condo market is also seeing a bit of a "mini-boom".  It appears that the new downtown arena project is a go and there are a number of new projects that have been started in anticipation of this.  While 709 units is by no means a high, there are a number of "hidden" sales inside project sales that don't make MLS.  Prices have now exceeded highs we saw in the 2006/07 boom market and even with a higher supply coming on line this will not abate.  Look for 2014 to once again see very strong growth in the area - single family sales will hover at 80 units (+8%) while condo sales will grow to 765 (+8%).  Prices for both will climb; single family slightly to $435,000 (+2.8%) and condos will break through the $300,000 barrier for the first time finishing 2014 at $305,000 (+4.6%).  Days on market will continue to be lengthy 70 days for homes and 56 days for condos.

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So that concludes the look at the regions in Edmonton.  Overall, the numbers are very exciting; single family home sales grew 7.2% in 2013 (8900 from 8296) and condo sales grew a staggering 15.3% (4572 from 3964).  I don't see anything that suggests this trend does not continue on 2014.  I expect home sales to reach 9700 units and condo sales to push to 5258.  By all indications prices will continue to rise as well and will vary across the regions.  Remember, because real estate remains local, it's best we sit down and do a comprehensive look at your neighbourhood to see just what the market impact is for your home.  Give me a call at 780-919-7653 or email me at lwestergard@remax.net and I will be happy to drop by to talk real estate!

Next time article we will take a look at the surrounding communities!

Thanks for reading!!

Larry